Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-105) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has been much more involved in his team’s passing game this season (26.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (20.0%).
Kyle Pitts has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
Kyle Pitts’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, accumulating 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 3.59 rate last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Kyle Pitts has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards