Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marcus MariotaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Falcons vs. Bears
Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 175.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 175.5 (-110) after it opened @ 164.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Marcus Mariota has thrown for many more yards per game (173.0) this season than he did last season (1.0).
- Marcus Mariota has been among the best per-play QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.50 yards-per-target while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in football versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.4%).
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency this year, yielding 8.43 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 27.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
220
Passing Yards
220
Passing Yards
