Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Marcus Mariota from EV Insight

Marcus MariotaPassing Yards

Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 175.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 175.5 (-110) after it opened @ 164.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Marcus Mariota has thrown for many more yards per game (173.0) this season than he did last season (1.0).
Marcus Mariota has been among the best per-play QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.50 yards-per-target while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in football versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.4%).
The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency this year, yielding 8.43 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 27.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
220
Passing Yards