Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Falcons vs. Bears
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-131) after it opened @ 61.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 17.1 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among running backs.
- The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- David Montgomery has been a less important option in his team’s running game this year (42.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (74.1%).
- David Montgomery has rushed for many fewer yards per game (46.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
