Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Falcons vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (+100) after it opened @ 28.5 (-120).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
- Cole Kmet has run a route on 81.0% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accrue 4.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 74.2%.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
- Cole Kmet has put up far fewer air yards this year (30.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
