Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Jets are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to garner 5.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 36.0 yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 40.0) versus TEs this year.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) to TEs this year (62.6%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends this year, conceding 6.74 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
