Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-135) after it opened @ 190.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- Zach Wilson’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 56.0% to 60.3%.
- The New York Jets O-line has given their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in football against the New England Patriots defense this year (64.2%).
- The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
185
Passing Yards
185
Passing Yards
