Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-135) after it opened @ 190.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Zach Wilson’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 56.0% to 60.3%.
The New York Jets O-line has given their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Cons

The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in football against the New England Patriots defense this year (64.2%).
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
185
Passing Yards