Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 7.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
- Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 22.5% this year, which places him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The New England Patriots defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 143.0) to wide receivers this year.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) vs. wideouts this year (61.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
