Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-125) after it opened @ 23.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 3.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among TEs.
- Hunter Henry has been among the most effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging an impressive 8.91 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
- Hunter Henry’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this year, accumulating 4.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 2.48 mark last year.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Hunter Henry has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
