Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Colts vs. Eagles
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-101) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Cons
- Michael Pittman has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- Michael Pittman’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching just 7.64 yards-per-target vs a 8.68 figure last season.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 136.0) versus WRs this year.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in the league (58.4%) to wideouts this year (58.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
