Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 77.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 20.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this year (85.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Josh Jacobs has run for substantially more yards per game (93.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.94 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
93
Rushing Yards