Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-108) after it opened @ 252.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 66.8% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
Joe Burrow has attempted 37.9 throws per game this year, checking in at the 77th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Joe Burrow has passed for a lot more yards per game (276.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).

Cons

The Bengals are an enormous 7-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (65.9%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 8th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards