Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+110/-140).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (+110) after it opened @ 47.5 (+100).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 13.0 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Cons

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has rushed for many fewer yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.45 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards