Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 6.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has notched far more air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 68.4%.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards