Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+115/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-145) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.6% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 8.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Diontae Johnson has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
- Diontae Johnson’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.4% to 61.7%.
- Diontae Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, totaling just 6.08 yards-per-target vs a 7.32 figure last year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) vs. wideouts this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
