Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Vikings vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-120) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- Dalton Schultz has run a route on 76.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to notch 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Cowboys have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 57.2% pass rate.
- Dalton Schultz has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (46.0).
- Dalton Schultz’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 76.3% to 72.8%.
- The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
