Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Vikings vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 258.5 yards (-130/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 258.5 (-130) after it opened @ 251.5 (-125).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to attempt 40.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-most yards in the league (278.0 per game) vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
Cons
- The Cowboys have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 57.2% pass rate.
- Dak Prescott has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (224.0) this season than he did last season (273.0).
- Dak Prescott’s throwing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.4% to 63.0%.
- The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
304
Passing Yards
304
Passing Yards
