Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Vikings vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-115) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 12.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- CeeDee Lamb has been much more involved in his team’s pass attack this year (32.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.3%).
Cons
- The Cowboys have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 57.2% pass rate.
- CeeDee Lamb’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 62.9%.
- The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
107
Receiving Yards
107
Receiving Yards
