WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Vikings vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-131) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 140.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accrue 16.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
- Dalvin Cook has improved when it comes to grinding out extra rushing yardage this season, notching 3.74 yards-after-contact compared to a 2.73 figure last season.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (139 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 33.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Dalvin Cook has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for 75.0% of snaps vs just 58.8% last year.
- Dalvin Cook has run for many fewer yards per game (79.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
