MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Commanders
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to earn 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
- The Washington Commanders defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (166.0) versus wideouts this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
- Brandin Cooks has been a much smaller part of his team’s pass game this year (22.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (28.2%).
- Brandin Cooks has accumulated quite a few less receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
