Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to earn 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
The Washington Commanders defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (166.0) versus wideouts this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
Brandin Cooks has been a much smaller part of his team’s pass game this year (22.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (28.2%).
Brandin Cooks has accumulated quite a few less receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards