Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Taylor Heinicke from EV Insight

Taylor HeinickePassing Yards

Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 213.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 213.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-130).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Houston Texans pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, yielding 8.32 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the NFL.
The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Cons

The Commanders are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Taylor Heinicke’s throwing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.0% to 61.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
204
Passing Yards