Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 76.5 (-133) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to notch 20.9 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has earned 84.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has grinded out 85.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (95th percentile).
Dameon Pierce has been among the best RBs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.60 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Cons

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 111 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
99
Rushing Yards