Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Commanders
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 76.5 (-133) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to notch 20.9 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has earned 84.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has grinded out 85.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (95th percentile).
- Dameon Pierce has been among the best RBs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.60 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
- Opposing squads have run for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 111 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
99
Rushing Yards
99
Rushing Yards
