Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-125).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to earn 8.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a much bigger part of his team’s pass attack this week (27.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (21.6% in games he has played).
Terry McLaurin has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 70.0 yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.

Cons

The Commanders are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards