Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

The Commanders are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in football (179 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense this year.
The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Antonio Gibson has been much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this year (38.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (65.2%).
Antonio Gibson has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (37.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards