Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Antonio GibsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Commanders
Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in football (179 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense this year.
- The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
- The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Antonio Gibson has been much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this year (38.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (65.2%).
- Antonio Gibson has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (37.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
