Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Allen RobinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Saints vs. Rams
Right now, Allen Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (+100) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Robinson to accumulate 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Robinson to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing attack this week (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.5% in games he has played).
- Allen Robinson’s receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.8% to 64.1%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
- Allen Robinson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (52.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Allen Robinson has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging a lowly 7.08 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 19th percentile among WRs
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
