Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Saints vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-125) after it opened @ 43.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Higbee’s 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 30.2.
- Tyler Higbee has accrued a lot more receiving yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
- Tyler Higbee has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (30.0 per game).
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Tyler Higbee’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 66.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
