Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to notch 18.0 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (71.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (49.8% in games he has played).
- Travis Etienne has grinded out 76.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (93rd percentile).
- Travis Etienne’s rushing effectiveness (5.68 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (93rd percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Jaguars are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in football (just 104 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards
91
Rushing Yards
