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Chris Meaney
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Dolphins vs. Browns
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 94.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 94.5 (-115) after it opened @ 90.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% pass rate.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 12.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs.
- Tyreek Hill has been a more important option in his offense’s pass attack this year (32.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.6%).
- Tyreek Hill has accumulated substantially more receiving yards per game (111.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
110
Receiving Yards
110
Receiving Yards
