Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Dolphins vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 78.5 (-115) after it opened @ 84.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.5% run rate.
- The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 16.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has earned 60.7% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has rushed for a lot more yards per game (105.0) this season than he did last season (86.0).
Cons
- The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have run for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 113 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
- The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
