Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-125) after it opened @ 268.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for substantially more yards per game (273.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a terrific 70.3% Completion%, grading out in the 91st percentile.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
305
Passing Yards