Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Dolphins vs. Browns
Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (-110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Jacoby Brissett has passed for substantially more yards per game (239.0) this season than he did last season (125.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards
234
Passing Yards
