Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Titans
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 9.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 9.5 (-120) after it opened @ 10.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Austin Hooper has run a route on 59.1% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Austin Hooper has earned a whopping 10.1% of his team’s air yards this year: 79th percentile among TEs.
- Austin Hooper’s possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 68.0% to 79.3%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Austin Hooper has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (16.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
18
Receiving Yards
18
Receiving Yards
