Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Malik Willis from EV Insight

Malik WillisPassing Yards

Right now, Malik Willis’s passing yards prop is set at 150.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 150.5 (-125) after it opened @ 150.5 (-115).

Pros

The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-most yards in the league (298.0 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the league versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (73.9%).
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 8th-best LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
183
Passing Yards