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Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Malik Willis from EV Insight

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Malik Willis

Malik WillisPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 9

Chiefs vs. Titans

Right now, Malik Willis’s passing yards prop is set at 150.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 150.5 (-125) after it opened @ 150.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
  • Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-most yards in the league (298.0 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the league versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (73.9%).
  • The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
  • The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 8th-best LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection
THE BLITZ
183
Passing Yards

Previous Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Austin Hooper from EV Insight Next Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Kenyan Drake from EV Insight