Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Michael Carter from EV Insight

Michael CarterRushing Yards

Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Michael Carter has garnered 42.5% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Cons

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Michael Carter has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (31.0) this season than he did last season (45.0).
Michael Carter’s running efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 3.35 yards-per-carry vs a 4.24 rate last season.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 93 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards