Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Week 9 NFL same-game parlay is from the Carolina Panthers/Cincinnati Bengals game. This game has one of the bigger spreads and one of the lower totals of the week. It also has a couple of teams with very narrow funnels for touches. That is why we are going to take the inflated touchdown scorer odds on two guys in this game to create a nice payout on the DraftKings same-game parlay of the week.
Models are only as good as the inputs you use to build them. If you have a large sample of games, you can make better predictions with all that information. When the number of games a team has played without a player or with a player in a new role is limited, it is much tougher to accurately predict how that player will do. That leads to some inefficiencies in pricing and that is what we are looking to take advantage of for our Week 9 NFL same game parlay pick.
DraftKings NFL Week 9 Same Game Parlay
D’Onta Foreman OVER 64.5 yards
D’Onta Foreman anytime touchdown
Tyler Boyd anytime touchdown
Last week’s same-game parlay of the week also had yardage and a touchdown out of D’Onta Foreman. The case for Foreman remains the same this week. After trading Christian McCaffrey, his backup Chuba Hubbard was injured the next game. That paved the way for Foreman to take a lead back role and literally run away with it. Foreman had 118 yards in back-to-back games, scoring three times. These were obviously high-end outcomes for Foreman, but still, 65 yards and a TD is a low bar given his current role. He gave up a lot of early touches to Hubbard two weeks ago and still ended the game with 15 carries before topping that last week with 22. His yards per carry will not remain at the 6.3 he has had the last two games, but his touches will remain high with the lack of other options. The Bengals’ run defense is the weakest link, so I would expect the Panthers to attack them that way.
The Bengals’ run game has struggled. That means they are going to go through the air. When Carolina is on defense, the way to attack them is in the slot. Tyler Boyd lines up in the slot more than any other receiver. With Ja’Marr Chase out, his targets should remain elevated. It was also interesting to note he saw red zone targets and the big fourth down target at the end of the game. Boyd is not only producing without Chase. He has scored in half of the games the Bengals have played this season, which at the very least means his plus-money odds feel a bit too high.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
