Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Titans
Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have incorporated some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 6th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a much smaller piece of his team’s running game this week (30.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.7% in games he has played).
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the least yards in the league (just 86 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
- The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the best unit in football this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Rushing Yards
31
Rushing Yards
