Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 242.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 242.5 (-135) after it opened @ 249.5 (-115).

Pros

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 40.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford has thrown for many more yards per game (253.0) this season than he did last season (219.0).

Cons

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have passed for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 202.0 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in football versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (68.2%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 6.54 yards-per-target: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
278
Passing Yards