Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-148/+108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-148) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a big 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accumulate 13.1 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- Aaron Jones has earned 51.4% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Aaron Jones has run for a lot more yards per game (69.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- Opposing teams have run for the most yards in the league (160 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-least run-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 37.2% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
