Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-115) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.8% pass rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to total 5.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
- Robert Tonyan has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this season (15.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (10.7%).
- The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (63.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Packers are a big 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Robert Tonyan has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
- Robert Tonyan’s receiving effectiveness has declined this season, totaling a mere 7.21 yards-per-target vs a 8.76 figure last season.
- Robert Tonyan’s ability to pick up extra yardage has declined this season, totaling just 4.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
