Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight

Jared GoffPassing Yards

Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 241.5 (-110) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Jared Goff has thrown for substantially more yards per game (263.0) this year than he did last year (229.0).
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (73.1%).
The Green Bay Packers defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 195.0 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards