Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-130) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to use backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this season (70.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (56.0) versus TEs this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Juwan Johnson’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a measly 7.61 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 figure last season.
Juwan Johnson has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards