Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ian Thomas from EV Insight

Ian ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 9.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 9.5 (-120) after it opened @ 9.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Ian Thomas’s 16.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 10.4.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.6 plays per game.
Ian Thomas has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, completing a measly 65.1% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 24th percentile.
Ian Thomas has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging just 5.69 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 18th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards