Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 67.3% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Hayden Hurst has been used less as a potential target this year (74.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to total 5.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
Hayden Hurst has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.24 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (56.4%) versus TEs this year (56.4%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards