Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 67.3% pass rate.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.6 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Hayden Hurst has been used less as a potential target this year (74.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (44.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to total 5.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.24 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (56.4%) versus TEs this year (56.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
