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Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D’Andre Swift from EV Insight

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D'Andre Swift

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 8

Lions vs. Dolphins

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-135) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

  • THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.6% run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.70 seconds per play.
  • The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
  • The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons

  • The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
  • The Miami Dolphins defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.
  • The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards

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