Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 8.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to be a more integral piece of his offense’s pass attack this week (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- George Kittle has been among the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 54.0 yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 4th-least in football.
- George Kittle has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
