WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Commanders
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Colts rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
- Michael Pittman has totaled many more receiving yards per game (81.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- Michael Pittman has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
