Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Commanders
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 210.5 (-110) after it opened @ 212.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in the league versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (73.3%).
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 211.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
- The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards
239
Passing Yards
