Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-121/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-121) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to total 4.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, averaging 8.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.97 rate last season.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
Cole Kmet has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (23.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Cole Kmet’s 30.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 38.7.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards