Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-108) after it opened @ 29.5 (-120).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to notch 5.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has totaled significantly more receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).

Cons

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. tight ends this year, conceding 6.35 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards