Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-108) after it opened @ 29.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to notch 5.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Evan Engram has totaled significantly more receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
Cons
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. tight ends this year, conceding 6.35 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.
- The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
