Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Eagles vs. Steelers
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (-114/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 214.5 (-115) after it opened @ 218.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest clip in the league versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (61.2%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 6.06 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards
249
Passing Yards
