Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Eagles vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- Diontae Johnson has totaled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
- Diontae Johnson’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.4% to 60.9%.
- Diontae Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 5.83 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 rate last year.
- Diontae Johnson’s ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, accumulating a mere 2.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.16 figure last season.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 137.0) vs. WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
